Basic fabric restricts Zheng cotton rebound height

On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose to a nearly eight-week high. As a result, Zheng cotton ushered in a weak rebound on Wednesday. At the close, the main contract of 1801 closed at 15,320 yuan / ton, up 0.66%. Analysts said that in the off-season of textiles, the inventory of yarn mills increased. In addition, the outflow rate of Zhengmian futures warehouse receipts has slowed down. It is expected that the 1801 contract rebound height will be limited before the dumping extension policy has yet to be settled.

Large storage pressure

In the spot market, the national average price of cotton was stable yesterday, with a partial small drop; the yarn price stopped falling and stabilized; the cotton index 3128B price was 15,859 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton. "At present, the profit of cotton wool spinning in the State Reserve has increased, and the price of imported cotton has dropped slightly. The import profit in the US cotton quota is around 1,200 yuan / ton," said the industry source.

In terms of shipping, on August 9, China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation plans to list 29,700 tons of outbound sales, including 81,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton. In the 23rd week, the reserve price of the national reserve cotton was 14,679 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton from the previous week. In addition, the data show that from March 6 to August 8, 2017, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 2,190,900 tons, with a turnover rate of 66.92%.

It is worth noting that with the rotation of reserve cotton, the pressure on the storage is relatively high, but the spot price is still rising in the futures price. In this regard, Ruida Futures Wang Cuibing believes that this reflects the lack of high-quality cotton resources, leading to supply structure problems, and it is expected that the supply of Xinjiang cotton will increase in the later period. "The reserve price of the reserve cotton will be significantly reduced to 14,678 yuan / ton, down 401 yuan / ton from the previous period, a new low since the official dump on March 6. The downward bidding price will have a certain impact on the market. ."

Yesterday, the China Cotton Information Network reported that the relevant departments will extend the 2016 and 2017 annual reserve orders for the reserve cotton to September 29. However, analysts believe that the news has been repeatedly speculated by the market and is expected to have limited market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, the current Zhengcang futures warehouse receipts and forecasts total around 1,800, which is in a historically high position.

Rebound space is limited

Judging from the growth of domestic cotton, according to industry insiders, most cotton in the cotton area in Inner Mongolia was in flowering stage in July, most of the cotton developed earlier, but parts of Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui were affected by high temperature and drought, and development was slow.

Most of the futures analysts Peng Yao, Liu Wei and Yuan Liang believe that recently, the domestic Zheng cotton futures price has followed the ICE cotton price increase, the national reserve real estate cotton transaction volume rebounded, but the reserve cotton price is weak, the cotton spot price is generally stable. But there is a partial decline. The price of downstream yarns has stabilized and is currently in the off-season of textiles. In addition, the outflow rate of Zhengmian futures warehouse orders has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term rebound of Zheng cotton 1801 contract will be limited before the policy of deferred reserves has not been settled, and it is expected to remain volatile. In terms of strategy, it is mainly based on high throwing and low sucking.

Wang Cuichan suggested that the short-term Zhengmian 1801 contract will continue to be held. Technically, the Zheng cotton K line is above the middle of Bollinger and has an upward expansion trend. The radicals suggest that the short-term is mainly. The operation is recommended to trade mainly in the interval of 15050 yuan / ton - 15450 yuan / ton.

Taking into account the impact of the external disk, market participants suggest that the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report and ICE cotton futures continue to be concerned in the short term. As of Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract was trading at 70.18 cents to 71.19 cents per pound.